'Lost Decade': UK Has a Lot to Lose With 'Hard Brexit'

BBrexit sailing apart- bon voyage

BBrexit sailing apart- bon voyage

"Brexit and leaving the single market and customs union puts any hope of well-funded schools and hospitals and police on our streets under immediate and serious threat".

"London is expected to experience a loss of 0.8pc (£4.1bn/€4.6bn) in Gross Value Added (GVA) by 2030 and 0.6pc (30,500 people) in employment under scenario two (compared to what may have happened if the United Kingdom remained in the single market and customs union), a loss of 1.9pc (£9.6bn/€10.8bn) in GVA and 1.6pc (83,800 people) in employment under scenario four, and a loss of 2.1pc (£10.8bn/€12bn) in GVA and 1.6pc (87,000 people) in employment under scenario five".

"If the government continues to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment", said Khan, a Laborite and a strong supporter of keeping Britain in the EU and the customs union.

The analysis by Cambridge Econometrics, the first time such an analysis has been undertaken, also warns that as a result of "hard Brexit", London alone could shed as many as 87,000 jobs and see its economic output fall 2 percentage points below what one could hope for under a softer scenario.

Khan commissioned the research after Brexit secretary David Davis said the government had failed to analyse the potential impact of Brexit on specific sectors.

Khan said he had commissioned and published the "Preparing for Brexit" report "because the British people and our businesses have a right to know the likely impact on their lives and personal finances".

Some Cabinet ministers involved in the Leave campaign are known to dismiss such studies as "Project Fear".

"There is no sector not negatively impacted", Mr Khan told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

Already economists suggest that during 2017 the economy had grown about 1% more slowly, falling to the bottom of the G7 and major European Union league table, after the impact on prices of the post-referendum slide in sterling.

And the answer is half a million fewer jobs and almost £50bn less investment by 2030.

According to the analysis, London's professional and financial services would be the worst hit by a no-deal hard Brexit, with 29,000 fewer jobs by 2030 than if Britain remained in the Single Market and Customs Union.

They argue the report "highlights the scale of the comparative risks associated with each scenario and potential outcome from the negotiations".

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