Sashastra Seema Bal personnel on election duty sip tender coconuts to beat the heat at Majestic in Bengaluru on Saturday | Shriram B N
According to a private weather forecasting agency the southwest monsoon is likely to be normal this year.The India Meteorological Department, IMD will issue its first official forecast for 2018 southwest monsoon rains in New Delhi today. IMD Director General K J Ramesh said the Monsoon rains were expected to be normal during the June-September period.
The prediction stands at a moderate error estimated of plus-minus 5 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The IMD categorises rainfall in the 96 percent to 104 percent LPA range as normal while the rain immediately below that, it is considered below normal. The average rainfall in "above normal" monsoon can fall between 104-110 percent of the LPA at the same time this is anything beyond 110 percent of the LPA is well thought-out as the "excess" anyway.
IMD will update its forecast in early June with numbers on month and region-wise distribution of the monsoon. India had 95 percent of the LPA rainfall on the last 2017 - as against the first forecast of 96 percent of the LPA (with an error margin of +/- 5 percent). India receives 70% of its annual rainfall in the four-month period, which in turn irrigates over half of its farm lands lacking assured irrigation. Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts.
However, a clearer picture of the season, which normally extends from June 1 to September 30, would only be available in June, IMD said. He expressed hope that the Monsoon will be constant and not sporadic.
The department forecast a low probability for deficit rainfall this monsoon.
As per the IMD, there is 42 percent possibility of normal rainfall and 12 percent possibility of heavy rainfall - it means the country can witness some rainfall in the country.
A good monsoon is good news for the Indian economy.
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